News From The Front  


Prior dewdrops of wisdom from the illustrious Sage of Wexford are retained for posterity below:

NEWS FROM THE FRONT - December 18, 2015

It was the week before Christmas and all through the land,
Not an asset was avoiding the Fed's tightening hand,
The Banksters were hung from the yardarm with glee,
In hopes that Money would once again be free.

Couldn't resist flexing my poetic prowess.  Janet, history will not be kind to this overwhelmed Fed Chair, finally pulled the trigger with a whopping 25 basis-point increase in the Fed Funds Rate this week, and the stock market went on its usual heroin-induced "we don't give a damn rally" BEFORE REALITY SET IN THAT THE TREND IN INTEREST RATES, BELATEDLY AT THE SHORT-END NOW, WILL BE HEADED HIGHER AND HIGHER IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.  Intermediate to Long-term rates have been moving higher around the world for months now.

This is a sea-change event, my loyal readers.  The Age of ZIRP is now officially dead, and those cheapskates at banks across the nation are going to have to pay us now for the use of our money, even if we couldn't buy a week's worth of groceries with the annual interest income.  But that is now.  Wait another 12 months, and we will finally be earning some interest income to buy more gold and silver with.

As always, since my aged, tired and beaten up fingers ( from DIY auto repairs! ) are no longer inclined to write as much as in days of old ( plus I am tired of listening to the same old blather ), I highly recommend that you read David Stockman's ContraCorner musings if you want an erudite exposition of what's what in Fantasy Land, 2015/2016.  I make sarcastic comments there all the time in support of David's positions, and since we have the same first names, I know that he is usually spot on in his analyses.  Just this week, in the comment section to a superb Stockman treatise,

Could not find the uber-short 90-day Treasury graph after three glasses of spiked eggnog, but this graph is even more telling: the U.S. Fed has a history of panicking and making money virtually free, see 1958 & 1962-1963.  Wow!

This graph also shows we are at the end of a mega-cycle in interest rates. Do you really think that inflation is less than 2% currently, as Janet does??!!  Try over 8% on Main
Street for us commoners who buy our own food and energy.  Energy's decline is a one-time event that has no impact to the rate of price changes going forward, and there are plenty of other every-day costs that are going up significantly like healthcare premiums, taxes at all levels, and food costs up the kazoo. 

Ah, Eureka, HERE IS A GOOD, 90-Day Treasury graph:


The historical graph of the 90-day Treasury Bill rate tells it all, put your hands over your ears when Janet starts babbling.  Normal, market-driven, demand for money would have gotten this rate off the mat years ago where it not for the Fed's constant tinkering AND FOR THE LACK OF OVERALL DEMAND. Even with Trillions in balance sheet expansion at the Fed, the global debt markets are so huge that true demand for the ingredients of production of goods and services would have levitated intermediate and long-term rates despite the Hamster Wheel activities of the Fed.

The demand was never there in a world already drowning in non-serviceable debt. The free money supplied by the Central Banksters merely went into speculation because that is where easy profits could be made, not in the production of goods and services for resale where only cost reductions and stock buy-backs boosted the bottom line.  Without growth in final demand and rising revenue streams as a result, there is no sustainable growth in world economies or profitability.  It was all smoke and mirrors, a Wall Street, Fifth Avenue condo recovery and nothing else.

Now the tide has gone out and rates will increase as one giant hairball default after another coming rushing down the pike.  Janet might as well go play golf with the retiring Obama.  Their scores at golf will surely be as good as their scores at economic machinations.  It matters not what the Fed focuses on going forward. The real market of money pricing is back with a vengeance, and ALL DIRT CREDITS ARE GOING TO BE PRICED ACCORDINGLY.  And that means interest rates at the long-end well north of 8% before the winter of 2017.

Buy that which others currently shun, and I am not talking about stocks, bonds, or real estate.

What good advice this commentator gives!  And these elusive assets of which I speak of course are gold, silver, and colored diamonds.  I always include the latter asset class, not because I have been selling them for over 13 years now, but because they have done much better than the precious metals over the last 7 years of Gold/Silver price manipulations by the likes of Goldman and JP Morgan.

But even though the Sage has been wrong for several months ( years?!! ) now about the exact bottom in both Gold and Silver having been achieved ( and I dare to say I think this is the time now, but who is listening at this point??!! ), I have never lost my faith in these Real Money Assets that can't be manufactured at will by any crazy Central Bank.  The record sales of American Eagle Silver coins from the U.S. Mint for 2015 speaks volumes (no pun intended) about the pending direction in both gold and silver prices.  Physical demand always trumps paper instrument trading over time ( The Donald let me use his name in this sentence for $25. )

Bad things are going to be happening to financial assets and real estate and the global economy, loyal partisans, and very good things are going to be happening to assets that act as hedges, historically and NOW, against Collapse, Turmoil, and Grave Uncertainty.  Merry Christmas on that note.

There has been no economic recovery for the average American.  Tell this to your elected officials, and make sure you voice your displeasure when you go to the ballot booth.
Retail stock investors have been moving to cash ( they must read these pages! ) for almost 2 years now because they know that the financial markets are rigged, and the big boys are just manipulating prices to suck the last dollar from the uninformed person-on-the-street.  At this point Americans just want their two front teeth for Christmas!  The have had their originals kicked out by those that have been elected or appointed to serve them.  Revenge will be sweet, although I know that thought is out-of-season.

Merry Christmas to All and To All A Good Night!

The politically incorrect Sage of Wexford.  17 years of selling and buying Precious Metals to thousands of very satisfied clients who will still have a nest-egg when the dust settles.


NEWS FROM THE FRONT - January 12, 2016

Happy New Year to all, and we have certainly started off with a bang.  The Sino Bang that is one of the most over-valued stock markets in the world, the Shanghai Exchange, has lost a mere 14.6% since ringing in the new year.  The vaunted S&P 500 has wiped out any return provided in 2015 with dividends reinvested with a 2016 decline of 5.3%.  Not a good start to a year already on sinking economic fundamentals.

I think a certain Sage of Wexford pointed out that China may be the domino that gets the Debt Collapse, Phase II, going, and that certain pundit is taking a timid bow off of stage right.

But I must say that I am more concerned about the world's future today than at any time in my over 6-decade long life.  This is not fear-mongering for the sake of drama or as a marketing angle, as my long-term readers know I have served a pretty useful purpose over the last 17 years in attempting to read the lay of the land to their financial benefit.  And although bullion purchases over the last 4 years may not have generated a positive return, YET, the possession of both Gold and Silver mean that you will have this Real Money Insurance as the dark days ahead unfold.  And the storm clouds have not just gathered, they are spewing forth thunder, lightning, and flooding rains to the detriment of the mortals below.

Debt Collapses are always a chain of sequential events, not a single implosion as one might expect.  Granted, a single event may greatly exacerbate the situation and accelerate the collapse, but it is like a string of Chinese fireworks going off in the street in celebration .......... one firework after the other until the pollution gauges in Beijing and Shanghai go off the scale.  First the struggling Chinese worker can't breath the air or drink the water.  Now, he or she cannot get their hard-earned money out of the collapsing Chinese financial markets.  When a singular country, albeit one centrally planned and centrally manipulated, is touted as the greatest growth story in the history of man, one had better look below the covers to see if the Emperor has any clothes or not!  And the current Chinese Emperor, the Communist-Run Quasi-Capitalistic System of 2016 China, is a streaker if there ever was one.

The Chinese Miracle since 2008 is fraught with so much expansion of credit that will never be repaid to the Government and domestic or foreign investors that a Yellen, or Bernanke, or Greenspan would blush as to the shear magnitude of debt creation and the utter lack of creditworthiness of the recipients of same.  I think a rice-paddy oxen got a $100 Million loan just the other day.  But there is no shortage of Americans, Europeans, and other Asians that are holding the soon-to-be-vaporized paper of these Sino-Credits via mutual funds, ETF's, and other highly-touted financial vehicles that are headed for the cliff of default.

Is it any wonder that the Chinese Government in 2015 had a net reduction in foreign currency reserves?!  Not only is their export-dependent economy suffering the fate of gross over-capacities in virtually every Sino industry, but the Yuan has had to be devalued by the Central Planners in order to keep trade from being any worse than it already is.  It is no secret that the Chinese have been selling U.S. Treasuries to obtain liquidity to fight current and future fires that are financially and economically springing up in the country like scandals for the 2016 Hillary campaign.  This pouring of Dollars into the global currency market will eventually put a lid and then a downward slope on the Greenback as other sinking exporters sell Treasuries and convert them quickly into local currencies to fight domestic crises that are mushrooming by the hour in Brazil, Venezuela, Greece, Spain, Austria, Ireland, Italy, and Russia, to just name a few.

The only thing holding the Dollar up is the rapidity with which other countries' economies and prospects are sinking into 2016, the audacity of the U.S. Government in putting out false narratives & outright lies, and the perception that the U.S. Fed is on a 4 to 5 times rate increase cycle this coming year.  Not sure these overpaid charlatans have the guts to raise rates much more this year, but the "normalization" cycle that they just started with a whooping 25 basis point hike may be needed to save the Dollar from its crumbling fundamentals and $160 Trillion of un-payable United Stated unfunded obligations.  Stranger things have happened.  Who would have thought in the Spring of 2009 that we would be at Zero Interest Rates for some 84 months during a purported economic recovery.  Only the banks, Wall Street, and sub-prime borrowers have benefited from this failed strategy.

The Obama Non-Recovery and the Obama Depression are now recorded, we must give credit where credit is due in celebration of the bows to be taken this evening in the final, thank God, State of the Union Address by this grossly unqualified and dishonest, unlawful President.  Hate to be political in this missive, but this player has contributed greatly to the recent demise of the American system, if not to the disharmony among the populace.  History will not be kind to his memory as the worst depression the world has ever seen unfolds before he can pass the hot potato on to the next President.

In closing, the precious metals are base building.  Buy when you have the dough because I am as convinced as ever that at some point down the not-too-distant road, neither gold or silver will be available at virtually any price.  Sounds like I am being dramatic again, but it has happened before and will happen again.  Harkin back to the Fall of 2008 for recent bullion pricing/availability history! 

Once again ...... Happy New Year!

Sage of Wexford, more right than wrong for going on 17 years now.


Courtesy of


The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is headed for a near-term retracement from its all-time high of some 50% before the crocuses sprout in the Spring, and a 70% to 80% retracement would not be unexpected in the unfolding Obama Depression.  Stock markets fueled by speculation and record leverage are destined for equally spectacular bear markets that not only wipe out all of the bull market gains, but financially ruin the vast majority of retail investors in the process.  GET THE MESSAGE?  There will be riots in China before long.


Courtesy of

U.S. stock investors today are back at the level they were first at in June of 2014!  Some 18 months of going nowhere while the economy heads unquestionably South.  Take a very good look at this chart.  IT IS THE CLASSIC PATTERN OF A BULL MARKET TOPPING OUT WHERE THE BREATHTAKING DECLINES ARE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT, MORE DRAMATIC, AND MORE DEADLY.  How much of your retirement savings are in U.S. stocks??!!  Walmart Greeters apron is in the mail to you.  How much do you have in Gold and Silver, physical only?  If you say 30%, a Shakespeare fishing outfit is on its way.


NEWS FROM THE FRONT - February 13, 2016

Ah, the perfect date to be writing about the Central Bank/ Government Debt Collapse we see unfolding before our startled eyes!  Hopefully, these dewdrops of Sage wisdom will serve you well in getting you out of the way of the AVALANCHE OF FAILURES above you on the Mountainside of Debt and Failed Government Policies.

I will turn to Gold and Silver price action first before I rant and rave about the harm our elected and unelected overpaid officials have done to us simple village people.  Both precious metals have formed a strong "V" bottom in price after an extended bear market that started in the summer of 2011.


Usually, such an abrupt bottom formation is suspect, and prone to retest the previous lows which would be about $1072 in Gold and $13.58 in Silver, but these are hardly "normal" times in any market or in any global economy.  To act as though things are "normal" today could cost you dearly in the years ahead.

So Gold is up 15.6% from its bear market low and Silver is up 16.7% from its low; year-to-date, these two monetary metals have beaten just about every asset class with a 16.7% YTD gain for Gold and a 14.7% YTD gain for Silver.  I think waiting for a secondary low, if it indeed ever happens as the wheels fall of the global cart a la Deutsche Bank and Chinese banks, is like playing on the railroad tracks in assuming "normal" price patterns are going to still exist.  Remember too that J.P. Morgan - Chase has a physical and paper position in Silver that is multiples of what the Hunt Brothers almost went to jail for via "market cornering" or "rigging", but they are big political contributors so they may be as safe as Hillary may be with a Democrat/Obama-appointed Attorney General.  Big Money does buy Big Influence.

I think you have no alternative in order to accumulate physical Gold and Silver (forget the fricking ETF's, there will be an audit any day now for several of these paper tigers that shows the cupboard is partially bare or with metals HYPOTHECATED out of reach with an executive or two now out of the country), but to be a buyer practically at any price now.  REASON:

THE MONEY YOU HAVE IN BANKS, READY TO BE DEPLOYED IN BULLION, MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD AFTER A BANKING SYSTEM WORLDWIDE COLLAPSE.  European banks are destined to employ bank BAIL-IN's of up to 30% of depositors' money, and the 8 to 10 largest U.S. banks like CitiBank, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are going to restrict funds transfers out for some period of time versus a full-fledged Bank Holiday with their doors physically locked shut.  Me, the Lowly, Know-Nothing Sage, having funds temporarily at some of the institutions named above, merely parked waiting for deployment with my knees knocking together since I could not choose the custodians' banks, started getting them "deployed" this very week.  I have never been a particularly astute market-timer anyway, so bullion in hand is far superior to money in the banks!!!!!


I personally feel that Deutsche Bank is going to implode any moment now, and the Daisy Chain of Derivative Ownerships (DCDO) is going to bring one bank, trading firm, and investment house down after the other when Deutsche goes.  As I have said previously in these erudite pages, this is the first time in my long life that I am genuinely fearful of the future.  Being prepared for bad times is not the same as enduring them. 

If you want to have a large cash reserve, I suggest you take it out in rotting currency that you can bury in the backyard or other clandestine spot.  Some have mocked me for suggesting same. Granted, the Dollar is a depreciating currency, just see what the Japanese Yen-Dollar cross has done of late when one would have expected negative rates in Japan to devalue the Yen, not the opposite!  When you have huge, unprecedented positions such as the Yen Carry Trade unwinding, with scads of spooked traders who are getting their clocks cleaned in these positions, you have counter-intuitive demand for another rotting currency, the Yen.  I think Japan has a Total Debt to GDP of around 250% and climbing, so would this be the currency you would buy in the midst of a global depression and debt collapse??!!  ME THINKS NOT, CERTAINLY NOT IN "NORMAL" TIMES.

And lest me wind up this missive without giving a shout-out to Janet Yelling for the absolute, unmitigated nonsense that she spewed forth at this week's Senate Feel-Good Ceremony on Clueless Hill:  Solid job market, growing financial market threats to growth (oh, really! with bank balance sheets and stock markets plunging around the globe!), 2% inflation targets (pulled from you-know-where!), rate increases based on the data (what else?  chicken entrails?! ), negative rates in study (we will see how soon they put Deutsche Bank in the crapper along with other no-liquidity Euro-Banks), low unemployment rate of 4.9% (no mention of discouraged or under-employed that are twiddling their thumbs each day), and, generally, WE HAVE YOUR BACKS, NOT TO WORRY.  Here we insert a picture of Alfred E. Newman of MAD MAGAZINE fame with flies buzzing around his head and a George Bush expression of incredulousness that a child would pick up on.

Janet, Ben, and Alan, don't spend all of those ridiculous speaking fees.  I plan to launch a class-action lawsuit along with 20 Million other Americans (only ones that have positive account balances) ON YOU GUYS HAVING STOLEN MY INTEREST INCOME OVER THE LAST 7 YEARS.

So remember the submarine war movie, DIVE, DIVE, DIVE.  In the precious metals markets, you are now watching the movie, BUY, BUY, BUY.  If you think an ETF can substitute for the real thing in your possession, I will hire Janet Yellen to be your personal financial advisor.  Comes with translator.



Duh, Janet, where is the improving economy??  The American
Consumer is plain tapped out, folks.  Zero Cost Money ain't
 going to change the Burden of Peak Debt & poor income
or job prospects.  Add in Loss of Confidence.

Would bet Janet's next paycheck that this downward trend in
Full Retail Sales, including Autos and Food, goes negative in
the First Quarter of 2016 as financial markets & economies
crumble before our very eyes.


NEWS FROM THE FRONT - March 18, 2016

The question on every bullion buyer's lips right now is whether he or she should buy more Gold and Silver right this minute or wait for a 40% retracement of the recent moves off the December lows.  With Gold up a shiny 18% year-to-date and Silver close behind with a 15.7% gain, normal technical analysis would suggest waiting for the much-talked-about pullback (possibly too-talked-about!) to add to your Bomb Shelter Portfolio.  Commercial Short positions also argue to be cautious in here, but these insiders have been liquidating some of these shorts and going long as the bullion market has continued to advance against their usually spot-on timing.  Normally, you don't bet against them.

But these are hardly normal times when the Newbie Chair of the Federal Reserve nervously states that there are risks to the economy and financial markets SHOULD SHE PULL THE LEVEL FOR A LILLIPUTIAN RATE INCREASE OF 25 BASIS POINTS.  The immediate question becomes:  "If the economy and financial markets are that fragile, THEN THE TOP MUST BE IN FOR BOTH!".

Those more in the weeds of Leveraged Speculation than Humble Moi will state that even 25 basis points will tip the scale such that 100x to 1 leveraged positions in interest rate swaps, cross-currency positions, YEN carry-trades, and $Trillion hedges on "if the chicken actually crossed the road" WILL IMPLODE AND COLLAPSE THE SYSTEM.  Really?  Then we truly are in Duck Soup as Janet's sweaty brow conveyed, not to mention the slight tremor in her speech and her overall NERVOUS body language.  She needs to go to the Greenspan/Bernanke School of Acting for Central Bankers!!!

So all is not well in Mudville, natives, and it is time to head for the hills.  Buying a new home right now would be like buying the Dow right now that finally managed to go into the Year-to-Date Green Column yesterday after 77 days of 2016 have expired.  Whooppeeee!

BUY THIS DEAD-CAT BOUNCE (no offense to Felines!) IF YOU MUST, BUT A FOOL AND HIS OR HER MONEY IS SOON PARTED!  A telling signpost up ahead:


This is what drives stock prices above all else, Newbie Stock Experts!  More than cheap money, more than Wall Street cheerleading, and infinitely MORE THAN fudged stats and falsehoods out of the Washington bureaucratic maze, it is all about growth in EPS to feed the P/E monster, and Corporate America has never, ever, ever been more IN DEBT & DEEP DOO-DOO than they are today after gouging on stock buy-backs since 2009.  That game is over, folks, as cash-flow goes negative to service the record mountain of debt they already have!  And no CapEx recovery is coming either, because you do not add to physical plant when your earnings are headed South along with your sales.

Speaking of Sales, take a gander, maybe after a stiff shot of something, to this record breaking GAP in wholesale inventories to sales:


A new ALL-TIME record GAP of some $155 Billion is sitting on warehouse shelves, in vehicle manufacturers' lots, and in new home developments across the country waiting for a buyer who is now scared as heck as to what the future may bring!  BEATS THE GREAT RECESSION LEVEL IN LATE 2008 AND EARLY 2009 BY SOME $25 BILLION, break out the champagne, gullible stock chasers.  We are already in recession, folks, and it is just a matter of literally weeks before the Default Avalanche gets going down the Debt Mountain in acceleration mode.

Mixing metaphors, all high-flying airplanes loaded with bad fuel such as ZIRP or NIRP or truly Idiots-Behind-The-Helm go into stall speed before they plummet back to earth.  We are not only stalled, we have already tipped over, and are now accelerating to the downside.  Phase II, the Greater Depression is one we will never forget with some $60 Trillion in new debt added to the Global Landscape since 2009; NOTHING has been solved around the world since the Lehman Collapse. More debt to the fire has only made things worse, and 2016 & beyond economies/financial systems will be worse than in 2008/2009 this time around.

So, circuitously as usual, I turn back to my original query above, "Is now a good time to add to Precious Metals positions, even after this big run-up?".  I say "yes" because I have wait-times to shipment dates on more and more products every day, and the physical supply of Gold and Silver around the world is increasingly well short of almost ravenous demand.  WE ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE TO A WAVE OF PANICKED BUYING IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER.

Do what you are comfortable with as to timing and quantities of Wasting Dollars finally put to productive use, but do not put things off too long.  Market timing is a substandard investment approach compared to being in the right market for the nova-bull move, AND GETTING OUT OF THE WRONG MARKETS PRIOR TO THE WEALTH DESTROYING MEGA-BEAR.

But do get out of stocks and bonds and don't even think of buying that new home because you are tired of that "old" one or the funky neighbors.  Much better prices will be had for all of those assets in the next 3 to 5 years.  Stay put physically, stay patient, AND DO GET AS MUCH MONEY OUT OF THE BANKING SYSTEM AS POSSIBLE AND PRACTICAL.  This global financial system is more toxic and compromised than ever in our geologically short time on earth.

Sage of Wexford, sometimes gut feelings carry the day.


Production grinds to a halt in month's ahead as businesses
attempt to adjust inventories to recessionary sales declines.

NEWS FROM THE FRONT - April 16, 2016

Now that you have sent a goodly percentage of your income to Washington for its misallocation of resources, we can turn to the state of the Precious Metals markets which are doing much better than the governance of our country.  Both Gold and Silver have been consolidating their 2016 gains over the last several weeks, and Silver in particular has broken above key resistance at $16 per ounce with conviction.  There, of course, is no guarantee in the world of investing that this new bull-market uptrend is infallible, but this price action, even while Gold was somewhat uninspiring, is quite a testament to the strength of both bullion markets.  There has been no "predicted" sell-off to date, and as time progresses along with price, the probability of such a retracement to the lows becomes more remote.


Gold may break out any day now to confirm Silver's move, but I would not be a fence-sitter at these levels because the Bernanke-Obama-Yellen (BOY) Bubble is imploding as my nimble fingers fly across the keyboard today.  It is quite likely that the White House visit of Janet Yellen, another real-world challenged Fed Chair, this past week was partially due to the impending bail-out required of Deutsche Bank in Euroland which may entail the use of freshly printed U.S. Dollars from the Fed to assist in the assist.  Of course, stock and bond investors of this monster German bank will take it on the chin first, but one has to wonder if the lever pullers will employ the Bank Bail-In regulations passed post-Lehman that give haircuts to underinsured depositors along with traditional investors in the bank.  Stay tuned.  Maybe to avoid the inevitable panic that is just around the corner anyway, the Central Banksters will refrain from doing so a la Cyprus-style, but this tactic in the ECU bag of tricks to milk taxpayers one way or the other was not legalized for nothing.

I makes my blood boil that Bernanke sent $Trillions of electronic credits to the Europeans post-Lehman to keep U.S. banks afloat based on their extensive European exposure at the time, but for Yelling Janet to do so 7 years PAST THE FRICKING CRISIS with unauthorized U.S. taxpayer funds is the final straw.  The U.S. Federal Reserve either needs to be severely restricted in its use of the printing press and unauthorized creation of U.S. liabilities, or abolished all together.  NEVER HAVE SO FEW WITH SO LITTLE KNOWLEDGE OF SO MUCH DONE SO MUCH HARM TO SO MANY PEOPLE OF THE EARTH IN SO SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME.  This grossly failed monetary experiment on a gargantuan scale has totally failed to trickle down economic growth to the citizens of the world.  THERE WILL BE REPERCUSSIONS.

The global economy continues to soften virtually without interruption to the downward trend.  I will incorporate some very telling charts within this missive, but monthly data on Wholesale Inventories, Orders, Retail Sales, Auto Sales, Tax Receipts, and Home Sales are all showing persistent monthly declines that convince me that we are well into Phase II of the Obama Depression.  Since Barack blamed Bush for everything to include Global Warming, which of course does not really exist in the realm of verifiable SCIENCE, I am going to lay this one at the feet of the Community Organizer who had ample opportunity to make a positive contribution to recovery BUT DID JUST THE OPPOSITE.  Another prime example of incompetence in American officialdom, a state of affairs that all of us and our generations to come will pay dearly for.  I actually pity whoever is elected President this year because they will undoubtedly go down in history along the lines of Hoover and Coolidge, presiding in a depression era that will take decades to exit and of unprecedented severity well beyond the capabilities of one President to ameliorate.

GDP is such a politically manipulated statistic, that we will be well within the grasp of the economic sinkhole this cycle before Washington releases any two consecutive quarters of negative growth with the Recession Label on them.  But we who actually work for a living already know better:


ABOOK Apr 2016 Motor Vehicles Total Vehicle Sales

Industrial Production 2016-04-15

ABOOK Apr 2016 China Retail Sales
I threw this one in to see if you were paying attention!
China is in deep doo-doo, so that "MIRACLE" will do
the opposite of putting the world back on track!!

There is no shortage of these Southbound economic graphs, and since they can be confirmed from multiple sources, independent of political manipulation, one has to heed their warnings that the economic decline is accelerating to the downside, not plateau'ing as media pundits financed from Wall Street would have you believe.  Statistics will only get worse as we head toward the Election in November, regardless of the efforts of officialdom to put a positive spin and outright falsification on the numbers. 

The jig is up for this cycle.  ZIRP and NIRP have proven to be utter failures in the Central Banking Bag of Tricks along with QE's of progressive numbering; more of the same tactics will be PUSHING ON A STRING.  All the King's horses and all the King's men could not put Humpty Dumpty back together again!!  THIS IS WHAT PEAK DEBT AND A PROLONGED DEBT COLLAPSE LOOKS LIKE, SPORTS FANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Economic and Financial System Deteriorations across the globe will be more and more numerous as we enter the Late Spring/ Early Summer period, so don't get too fancy in your timing of additional Gold and Silver purchases.  The Precious Metals are in a new bull market, and he or she who over-thinks the acquisition timing of same is going to be left at the train station.  Eventually, it will be very difficult to buy any bullion at any price, and that time may come sooner than any of us thinks possible.

Sage of Wexford, BOMB-SHELTER READY!



NEWS FROM THE FRONT - May 21, 2016

My, my, my.  One mention of a June rate increase from two Fed Heads, and the Goldman-Morgan cabal uses it as an excuse to provide a very quick correction to the 2016 advances of Gold and Silver.  Granted, the supposedly-always-right Commercials had a record short position on the metals with the Speculative Trades record long, but the know-all Commercials work down these shorts during a pullback.  And in reality, the Commercials are not always right!.  All hocus-pocus if you ask me.

There is still too much influence in daily bullion price discovery via the bogus Paper Market of futures and options, but that is changing as more and more bullion comes off the market via physical deliveries, not just Exchange Deliveries, but deliveries to your and my front porches (signature required!).  Most of this possessed bullion ( no exorcism required here! ) will not come back into the physical market for many, many years BECAUSE THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO ALTERNATIVES THAT ARE EQUALLY LIQUID AND SAFE AS GOLD AND SILVER ACROSS THE INVESTING LANDSCAPE.

Personally, I do think that Chair Yellen will increase rates by a whopping 25 basis points in June, BUT WHEN THE HECK ARE MY BANKS GOING TO PAY ME SOMETHING WORTH TALKING ABOUT ON MY CASH DEPOSITS!!!!!  The result is for me to buy more gold and silver and colored diamonds with this FALLOW ASSET, and leave just enough for future expenses and maybe emergencies, BUT REDUCE THE FREE MONEY I AM GIVING MY BANKSTERS WITHOUT COMPENSATION.  Where else in the universe do you give a valuable asset to another party, one you have scrimped and saved for, and receive no compensation for its use??!!

Only on Planet Earth with the New Millennium CENTRAL BANKING THAT HAS NOT DONE ANY GOOD FOR US COMMON FOLK and only enriched the banks and speculators to the detriment of the populace and THE STABILITY OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF.  System failure is going to be a result of all this accumulation of debt, mark my words ( and those of more and more observers as the days go by! ).  Severe strains, especially in China, Brazil, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and northern Midwest U.S. are already beginning to appear.  China had a commodity price surge in its markets a couple of months ago induced by another flood of liquidity and speculation looking for yield, AND THIS SPECULATIVE BINGE ON RAW MATERIALS IN A GROSS SURPLUS WORLD HAS ALREADY UNWOUND!!!  So the Red Ponzi, as David Stockman likes to label the Chinese Monetary Experiment, is now witnessing the final phase in a speculative spending binge that has been faster and greater than any country in the world in recorded time.

Gold is still up a handsome 18% year-to-date in 2016 and Silver an even nicer 20%, while most of the stock averages are either negative or barely positive.  Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah!  Be a buyer on any of these dips, like $25 in Gold and $1 in Silver, because the Chinese are likely as any over-indebted developed nation to cough up a GIANT DEFAULT some Sunday night or just devalue the Yuan 20% to 35% to make debt payments a little easier for its sinking borrowers.  The United States of Indebtedness will do the same, probably at a later date, but it is inevitable that we will default on our obligations in some fashion; we will just call it devaluation of the Dollar to be backed by Gold or Treasury Bond/Note Maturity Extensions for the Common Good.

As Jim Sinclair wrote this week, buy Gold and Silver when you have the cash.  You have to be in the game to ever make it to Home Plate.  The Sage has been saying this for years, but Jim is not a bullion broker like the Sage so there cannot be a conflict of interest in this recommendation by Jim.  The vast majority of my clients are sitting on sizeable gains in both Gold and Silver since WCM bullion sales began in 1998.  Patience is always rewarded in investing ....... unless you buy real estate, farmland, stocks, or bonds today.

Market timing is a fool's game in this environment because a squadron of BLACK SWANS are already over head, AND CAN LAND AT ANY MOMENT WITH A ROCKET RIDE FOR BULLION MOST WILL BE SHOCKED AT.  Plus, by mid-summer I think we are going to see most bullion products in short-supply with 5 to 6 week backlogs for shipping, at best.  There may be a point when the Sage is forced to retire because he has nothing to sell.  Not too far-fetched in this out-of-control world.

Ms. Yellen finally had the light bulb go off that any nation of aging demographics where soon-to retire or retired American seniors require INTEREST INCOME to increase discretionary spending will not fare well in a Zero Interest Rate Environment.  A study done by the Federal Reserve itself and released this past week TO ZERO MEDIA COVERAGE showed that there has been no growth in Industrial Production since 2008!  This fact from the horse's mouth implies, along with other confirming economic stats, THAT THERE REALLY HAS BEEN NO ECONOMIC RECOVERY SINCE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE.  Not laying this mess at the feet of the Community Organizer, solely, but this grossly under-qualified politician did nothing to help, but did much to harm the thwarted American recovery with a political payback Stimulus Package, ObamaCare, racial divisiveness, breach of law via immigration give-away edicts from the White House, and being at the helm with no Fiscal Discipline to run up more National Debt than all of the Presidents before him combined.  Lovely.

Time to do other things today.  I will put some telling charts up as I get time this coming week.  But behave like you are in the middle of a financial and economic depression, BECAUSE WE ARE IN ONE NOW THAT WILL SET NEW RECORDS ON THE MISERY INDEX.




Sage of Wexford, buying the dips!


News from the Front:  June 24, 2016

He, he, he, he, he.  When bookies, entrenched politicians, uber-bureaucrats in Brussels, Central Banksters like Yellin', and George Soros are running around the streets of London yelling FIRE with their pants actually on fire, I start rolling in laughter in the aisles.  Soros was probably long the British Pound Sterling, so this is one conservative that hopes this communist-loving Socialist got his trading head handed to him on this event.  I wrote in a blog, probably on David Stockman's ContraCorner site, that polling is notoriously flawed and the opposition press in the U.K., which was firmly against Britain Exiting the European Union, was introducing bias into the poll results.  Gee, that never happens here in the Untied States!!!  The liberal/socialist media around the world works overtime during election cycles to attempt to discourage the opposition into either not voting or voting for their cause.  Has been happening for decades now, just watch CNN or MSNBC, and then watch Fox News for the same event coverage.  SHOCKING.

And for those of you in commentary land that have said the strengthening of the Dollar on this news would be terrible for Gold and Silver, think again.  The flawed Dollar Index is up 2 points this morning while Gold is up over 4.5% and Silver is up over 3.0%.  The Commercials via the COT reports are also running around the streets of London with their pants on fire as they just added to their short positions in Gold in a record amount.  The premise that they are always the smart money is intrinsically flawed.  If they were correct 100% of the time, then volatility in gold and silver trading would be very low and everyone would take the side of the Commercials, with virtually no one left to take the other side.  The nervy Speculators would, but not to the extent they currently do.  Futures contracts would shrink in absolute volume, and liquidity in the bullion markets at the paper contract level would be severely strained, possibly for the better in this instance.

There are plenty of periods in modern history when both Gold and Silver have done very well to the upside with a strengthening Dollar.  It is all about why the Dollar is strengthening and, in this case, the realm of Euroland is coming unglued at the seams and the flight-to-safety people have not gotten the memo yet that the United States is just another bankrupt sovereign entity in Debt that it will never be able to repay or even service in the years ahead.  Now the Commercials, the Central Banks, and the insolvent Treasuries around the world are going to try to tamp Gold and Silver down all day today, and they started well before you and I were even awake on the East Coast.  The Commercials are going to add Shorts in order to depress the Gold price in particular so they have more of their shirts left when they close out some of their massive SHORT position, but physical demand around the world for the Precious Metals has been off the charts leading up to this British Referendum and is not abating today.

The days of the futures markets in New York and London setting the intra-day prices of both Gold and Silver are slowly, but surely, coming to an end.  The superb concept of the Shanghai Gold Exchange allowing trading AND settlement in physical metals without paper contract manipulations, well beyond that which is available in warehouse FOR DELIVERY,  is coming into its own.  As the Western Bullion Exchanges allow delivery defaults to happen in the weeks and months ahead, the world's bullion trading business will flow more and more to the East where a position can only be settled in physical Gold & Silver and not the rotting cash that the Comex is going to throw at delivery-demanding traders who entered the position to acquire physical metal.  Who the heck wants fricking decaying Dollars with Obama's mug on them.  I think Obama is on the Fifty-Cent Dollar which is coming out next week, since that is going to be its Purchasing Power in the next few years.

My hat is off to the majority of the British people.  Never forget that this lonely island of Anglo-Saxons fought off the Nazi Huns single-handedly prior to the United States entering World War II; the French had long since uttered the command first taught to French generals:  "I SURRENDER".  The concept of self-rule runs back hundreds and hundreds of years with the British people, and the economy killing regulations and constraints put upon them by the overpaid & arrogant bureaucrats in Brussels over the last decade finally broke the camel's back.  NOT TO MENTION THE HORDES OF UN-VETTED IMMIGRANTS THAT THE BRITISH PEOPLE COULD NOT AFFORD TO TAKE UPON THEIR SHORES. GOOD SHOW.  I hope Obama and Hillary have made a note of this vote against open borders that no civilized country can sustain along with economic growth and national security.



I will get some graphs up here in the days ahead (maybe, after I leave the British pub crawl!), but more and more information has come out over the last 10 days that make the existence of a U.S. recession at this moment about a 90% probability.  No one wants to be the Party Pooper to the Federal Reserve induced and ZIRP-fed stock, bond, and real estate price rallies that are so long in the tooth they are beginning to fall out.  Real estate prices have declined in many areas already, and the supply of new homes is being held back by builders who are trying to maximize price per unit, and not the traditional volume sales approach.  But qualified buyers are getting fewer by the day, and groundhogs once again are being offered silly-low down payment loans guaranteed by the Federal Government in some fashion or the other.  Old habits die hard. 

But make your financial decisions today based upon negative economic "growth" in the days, weeks, and months ahead.  The NON-RECOVERY is already toast.

Americans' disposable incomes have just not kept up with home prices over the last 30 years.  This widening gap of home affordability is going to cause home prices to eventually crater across America just as the unfolding depression will first put stock prices in the tank, and then bond prices at all "safety" levels will tank when defaults explode across the world.  Bonds are having a great day today out of pure panic, but the disintegration of Euroland is going to cause many Europeans banks to become insolvent along with the sea of insolvent sovereign states that comprise this much misguided Union.  This could be the Black Swan event that starts the avalanche of Debt Defaults heading down the Global Mount Everest of Unserviceable Global Debt.  Financial stocks are being taken to the woodshed as I speak, and they have been in a bear market for several quarters now.  THE DIE IS CAST.



                                   It is all about Affordability + CONFIDENCE!

Auto sales are now dipping month to month, so if you want to go into debt to buy one of these overpriced conveyances, you may want to wait until Fall or Winter to pick up the deals that are going to bloom like Brexit voters.


Lastly, the Employment situation is worsening, not improving, as more and more Americans either leave the workforce or have to take one or more part-time jobs at a fraction of their prior salaries to keep food on the table.  Obama can truly take a bow for having done such a great job with the U.S. economy.  I label this depression the Obama Depression, and it could not be tagged upon a more incompetent, lawless Chief Executive.  There will be few statues of this piker dotting the landscape of America in the decades ahead.


Waiting for AMexit, THE SAGE OF WEXFORD



News from the Front:  August 5, 2016

Be confident in your precious metals positions because the proverbial Rubber Band is stretched so tight & thin in the world's financial system that you can almost hear the fibers straining just before failure.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, I sound like a broken record, but it will be I that plays, "My Heart Bleeds For You", when the inevitable economic and financial collapse just around the very near corner gets underway with a vengeance.  And by "you" I mean all out there in 2016 Fantasyland that do not grasp the severity of the situation we are truly in as the last days of summer come to a close.  Many "falls" occur in the Fall, but a massive bank failure daisy chain can ignite at any moment especially when such major banks as Deutsche Bank in Europe are technically insolvent.

I guess it is human nature not to want to dwell on the negative side of the aisle in life, but many a fortune and financial posture have been ruined throughout history when individuals are so engrossed in their own pursuits of happiness and livelihood that they fail to observe the warning signs all around them.  Tunnel vision can be very dangerous, for a train engineer as well as an investor, as in chasing any of today's financial or real estate assets into the price stratosphere where no value can be found and retrenchments in price are a given at any moment.  There are more warning signs than usual in today's environment, but I have shown them to all that would look in the many months prior to this epistle, so I will not bore you with the same canary tweets here.

Since the Sage of Wexford, that venerable icon of prognostication, has pounded his fist on the table of truth for years now about the existence of a 2008 Recession / Depression that just won't go away, I present the following graphic graphic:


US recession 2016


The hideous Red Line represents 1.2% GDP growth, a threshold that has only twice been reached since 1948 AND THE U.S. ECONOMY WAS NOT ALREADY IN RECESSION.  Of course with the $60 to $70 Trillion of new debt added to the global system at all levels since 2008, the period we are firmly within can only be deemed a DEPRESSION in the final analysis because the global system is so impaired structurally that all of the fiscal and monetary machinations to stimulate a moribund, sick world economy have been for naught FOR THE LAST 8 YEARS.

Depressions are very difficult to exit, just ask survivors from the Great Depression in the 20th Century, and this one is no different, but in the end will prove to be much more severe and much longer in duration.

Now of course this FRED graph is utilizing compromised Government statistics, but the trend and overall picture are quite clear:  Either we are headed down into the economic basement OR WE ARE ALREADY THERE.  I pick the latter condition, but use your own interpretations to get some bearing on how you should spend your discretionary income and savings these days.

What does this analysis have to do with purchasing and holding both Gold and Silver, you ask?  The risk of bank, corporate, Government, and personal failures just went off the scales.  No system can carry the burden of debt that the world has today and not experience failures and collapses WHEN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY TURNS MARKEDLY SOUTH AGAIN.  Period, bing, bang, boom.  The Central Bankers can stand on their academic heads and bay at the moon until the cows come home on this one, but even the stupidity of the Bank of Japan in burying the Land of the Setting Sun in Trillions of Yen of unpayable debt has NOT helped Japan one iota.  A case in point.

AND NEITHER WILL MORE OF THE SAME MONETARY STUPIDITY ACROSS THE GLOBAL LANDSCAPE DO ONE TRICKING OUNCE OF GOOD TO SAVE THE FAILING FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS AROUND THE PLANET.  The patient is dead, cremate it already, and push the infamous Hillary RESET button to try to figure out what debt is actually going to be repaid in the decades ahead.  The thought of Debt Deadbeats getting free rides on future debt repayment turns my stomach.

But global economic retracement has occurred not just at this moment, but for the last 6 quarters of calendar history (and sooner for many provinces in China and countries in Europe).  That has been the duration of negative earnings comparisons, year-to-year, for the S&P 500 companies, and the quarter just ended in the United States, Second Quarter, 2016, just registered Negative Growth or Actual Decline in Year to Year Corporate Earnings for the SIXTH STRAIGHT QUARTER.  Need one be hit over the head with a Louisville Slugger to get the message here??!!!

Sooooooo many stock and bond investors are operating on A Hope & A Prayer that the Fed can come to the rescue when the trap door opens on Wall & Broad and the lemmings can't jump off the cliff fast enough.  The Federal Reserve of the United States has shot its wad, and regardless of the grandiose schemes they may pull out of their rear ends in the months ahead, THEIR PRIOR FAILURES ARE TRULY JUST PRECURSORS TO THEIR FAILURES JUST AHEAD.  Even a cartoon super-hero could not pull this one out of the fire.

Gold is down some $22 today and Silver down about 60 cents due to a stronger Dollar based on another smoke-and-mirrors EMPLOYMENT REPORT, but once the entrails of the chicken are analyzed by those without a political agenda, it will once again be shown that the Labor Market is actually weak or weakening and not even a modicum as strong as the Government puppets in Washington would have you believe.  More to follow on this angle as I get time this week.  How could the labor market be improving or considered strong when corporate earnings are in decline and for a prolonged period of time?  Does not happen and I have been through no less than 7 economic cycles in my illustrious life so I should know something about this topic.

Another Phony Jobs Report, August 5, 2016

Paul Craig Roberts

As John Williams has made clear, the monthly payroll jobs number consists mainly of an add-on factor of 200,000 jobs. These jobs are a product of the assumption in the Birth-Death Model that new business ventures create more unreported new jobs than the unreported job losses from business failures. If we subtract out this made-up number, July saw a gain of 55,000 jobs, not enough to keep up with population growth. Even the 55,000 figure is overstated according to John Williams’ report: “The gimmicked, headline payroll gain of 255,000 more realistically should have come in below zero, net of built-in upside biases.”

In other words, the 255,000 jobs are the product of a virtual reality created by a faulty model and manipulations of seasonal adjustments. Williams says the real rate of unemployment is not the claimed 4.9% figure but 23%.

Even if we assume that 255,000 jobs were created in July, the news remains bad, because the jobs claimed are mainly lowly paid part time jobs without benefits and provide insufficient income to support an independent existence. This is why so many employed young people
continue to live at home with their parents.

The labor force participation rate, a measure of labor market strength, is far below where it was 22 years ago. The low participation rate is inconsistent with the claimed 4.9% rate of unemployment.


But the Employment report is merely an excuse for bullion traders to take profits after a magnificent run in 2016, and no reversal in trend is even remotely in sight, so put down that bottle of aspirin, you will be fine.  In fact, the Sage actually bought some Gold this morning for his Silas Marner hoard in East Siberia, but a market timer I am not.  A LONG-TERM INVESTOR I AM, and it has served me well since 1997 to buy and never sell an ounce, even to buy a new car or pay off a politician.  Now both gold and silver may go lower in here, only the Shadow knows for sure, but who the heck cares.


Sage of Wexford, the Party-Pooper Extraordinaire.


News from the Front:  October 8, 2016

As Matthew pounds South Carolina, failed Central Bank monetary policies pound into fragments the financial and economic system of the world.  No exaggeration.  The largest German bank, and probably the largest bank in Europe, is decidedly insolvent, awaiting some form of bail-out by the German people or "bail-in" where stockholders and bondholders and large, underinsured depositors subsidize the poor decisions of Deutsche Bank management for decades now.  The German people are hardly in any mood to bail banks out a second time this Millennium, so bail-in's are likely to be the first salvo at salvation for the numerous EuroLand banks that are teetering on the precipice of insolvency.  Nothing has been cured or solved with all of the money printing by Central Banksters since 2008, THEY HAVE ONLY MADE THE OUTSTANDING DEBT THAT WILL NEVER BE REPAID OF SUCH ENORMOUS QUANTITY IN THE TENS OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF SUCH HISTORIC MAGNITUDE THAT THE DEFAULT PANIC IN PROGRESS IS ALL BUT GUARANTEED.

The avalanche of defaults and insolvencies globally has already started a snowball the size of Manhattan down the MOUNTAIN OF NON-PAYABLE DEBT.  The Second Phase of the Greater Depression is in inning number two by baseball standards and poised to accelerate to the bottom of Human History, the dregs of history by any measure.

Since Gold hit a yearly high this year of $1365 for a 28% gain and Silver hit a high around $20.60 for a 49% gain, it is no surprise that the precious metals are currently correcting to wash out some of the speculative hands who helped push investor sentiment to bullish extremes.  With about $300 in gains in Gold from 12/31/15, it is no shock either that we have currently pulled back some $100 or 33% of the up-move.  With about $6.80 in gains in Silver from 12/31/15 at the year-to-date high, we have currently pulled back about $3 or corrected 44% of the up-move, another NON-surprise.  Very typical of commodity markets, and certainly to be expected based upon how popular all of a sudden the Precious Metals were becoming with the Hot Money Crowd, the hedge funds, speculators, and money managers.  Too many passengers on one side of the boat tip the boat.  A correction is healthy to bring in new and stronger holders of the metals who take the longer term view of holdings, and are not disposed to trade the pants off the sector.

Since the all-knowing (?) Commercials have been heavily Short both Gold and Silver most of the year, much to their chagrin, they have also been exiting their short positions during the last several weeks in both Gold and Silver, while the wild-and-wooly Speculators have been reducing their record-setting Long positions!  So the Long & Short trading positions are coming more into line with normal as this correction proceeds.  Although the Sage can forecast economic growth 1000% better than the failed Federal Reserve, I am not going to try to call a bottom area in both Gold and Silver where we will definitely turn sharply around and head North again with a vengeance.  However, to make sure you get your money's worth from this epistle, we are probably within $50 of price for Gold and within 50 cents for Silver, but do not bet your last dollar on this total guess.  I am also guessing that Donald Trump wins the Presidential Election, so there!!  Hillary has more baggage than an American Airlines porter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Things are not getting better or improving because we have utter incompetents at the levers of power and especially at the Central Banks of the world, the Federal Reserve leading the band of knuckle-heads to the heap-pile of failed policies.


These are very encouraging graphs of Gold and Silver over the last 2 years and show a very normal pull-back to support in the 200-day moving average region.  Nothing to jump out of a window about.  In fact, you should be getting as much money out of the financial system due to all of the ties that American Banks have to Sinking Deutsche Bank as you can to store as hard cash and use to purchase Tangible Assets that will not be swept down the mountainside in the unfolding Avalanche of Debt Defaults headed our way.  Buy when there is blood in the streets, a phrase that is fitting for the Halloween Month of October!  Gory, but fruitful.

We are already firmly in Recession in 2016 as shown by the Baltic Dry Index, Freight Rates of all genre, Auto Sales, Retail Sales, Home Sales, both new & existing, and by the LIE-o-meter coming out of Washington which is hitting all-time highs.  Do not wait for an official announcement of U.S. recession because its effects will have hit you square in the face and into your pocketbook long before the shills in Number Crushing Ville decide they can't fudge the numbers any longer.  If Trump gets elected, they will cough it up fast to prove that his election crashed the system.  REALLY.  I would say Barack will have had more to do with the re-entry into recession/depression with a failed Stimulus Package of some $800 Billion, ObamaCare coming apart before our eyes after devastating the wallets of many Americans, and racial division crushing the economies of cities such as Baltimore & Chicago that the First Black President has only made worse, not better.  King Obama's Open Border policies via Executive Edict have cost us legal citizens Tens of Billions of Dollars over his 8-year term, an easy argument to prove.  Respect is not granted merely due to holding high office in the land, it is earned each and every day in office.



   David Stockman has a new subscription service with daily updates
   as to how screwed up we are at this point.  $29/month and worth
   every penny.  More info than Sage could ever provide you with.
   Skip a Starbucks or two every month and stay enlightened.

Interest rates at the 20 and 30 year maturities are heading up around the globe as bond buyers insist on higher yields in order to buy all of the quasi-junk that is being put before them at the Government, Corporate, and consumer levels.  It was only a matter of time before investors realized that most of this freshly printed debt was in grave risk of never being served on time as Governments extend maturities BY EDICT to plug the dike of insolvency, and outright defaults occur on Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese, French, and Chinese bonds.  If you own bonds currently, I would think about cashing out to try to save your retirement plans.  Bill Gross, also known as the Bond King, thinks the global bond market is an accident waiting to happen.  Prices of bonds have never, never, never been this extended for such an extended period of time, AND NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES HAVE NEVER EXISTED IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND.  DUH, DUH, AND DUH.

Okay, time to watch some college football, but you get the message.  BUY THE DIPS.

Sage of Wexford, longing for the days when my keyboard is replaced by a fishing rod.


News from the Front:  November 12, 2016

Would rather be watching college football than pounding out my 163rd bullion ezine, but my team does not play until 8 pm tonight, so I would be football saturated by then.  I know your first question is:  "why didn't the Precious Metals rally big time after that loose-cannon Donald Trump was elected President this week?".  At least he is not an un-convicted felon and influence peddler and national security risk.  During the night of the election gold spiked to $1340, but came back down to a bargain basement $1230 by the end of trading on Friday, Veterans' Day, November 11th.  ( Hope you put out a flag for the men and women who sacrificed all to keep you free! )

After pondering the Super Moon in the night sky, I realized that the bond market got clobbered last week, with bond yields spiking higher than Hillary's blood pressure on Election Night.  Hedge Funds, who charge big fees and over the last several years have returned small returns, have continued to ride this Bond Nag until the poor steed's hooves have fallen off and the beast has literally died of exhaustion over the last several quarters.  This is not just in the Untied States, but around the world where bond yields are mysteriously heading higher even as Central Banksters pull out all the stops to keep money nearly free for one and all. 

SO THE BOND VIGILANTES THAT HISTORICALLY HAVE KEPT BOND PRICES AND BOND YIELDS WITHIN THE REALM OF FINANCIAL REALITY FOR DECADES PRIOR TO THE GREENSPAN/BERNANKE/YELLEN MONEY PRINTING ARE BACK IN TOWN WITH A VENGEANCE.  You see, Grasshopper, there are two very fundamental elements to bond pricing that have been absent from the crazy bond market of the world in the last 8 years:  INFLATION RISK AND CREDIT OR DEFAULT RISK.  Now that many fiscal, financial system, and economic system bodies are floating to the surface of the pond in 2016, bond investors realize that bonds are way, way, way overpriced AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE YIELDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MANY DANGERS PRESENT & JUST AHEAD.



Janet Yellen needs Pampers with spike!!

So the Hedge Funds, also part of the SPECULATOR category in the Bullion Trading pits, were getting so beaten up in their Bond long positions last week that they needed to liquidate their over-sized (and speculatively over-extended!) Gold & Silver LONG positions to meet margins calls and get liquid from the blood-bath in the Bond Market.  Not that they felt that all of our nation's and global devastating woes would be solved by the Donald riding his White Horse into Washington, AND THAT THE GOLD HEDGE WAS NO LONGER NEEDED, but because they were wrong big-time on the direction of bond yields and inversely bond prices AND WERE GETTING THEIR CLOCKS CLEANED.  Not buying the argument that the Dollar reaching 100 on the Dollar Index is the main cause; metals have done just fine during strong Dollar periods.

Now the COMMERCIALS, reportedly the Smart Money in the Gold & Silver trading pits because they are insiders who actually use the stuff in commerce, I am sure helped whack the metals' prices daily last week to get prices lower so that they could reduce their whopping Short positions in both metals.  JUST THINK OF IT AS THINGS GETTING MORE IN TUNE WITH THE UNIVERSE IN THE GOLD AND SILVER PITS.  So the C.O.T. reports to come out in the weeks ahead should show that we are nearing the end of this roller-coaster ride of a Precious Metals Correction (PMC) as Speculative LONGS get back to a more "normal" level AND Commercial SHORTS do the same.  All will soon be right with the world.

Since The Donald, aka President Elect Trump, has never seen a debt that he did not like, and inflation is rearing its ugly little head in prices across the board & around the world of late, and the humongous INFRASTRUCTURE & MILITARY SPENDING that Prez-Elect Trump is proposing to jump-start the dead-on-arrival OBAMA Economy is devoid of any hints of places to cut the Giant Federal Budget, THE BOND MARKET GOT KIND OF SHOOK UP FROM THIS GOODIE BAG OF ESCALATING FEDERAL DEFICITS.  Stocks won't stay happy with a 15% Corporate Tax Rate, whacked Federal Regulations that strangle American businesses, or jettisoning ObamaCare out the window of Trump One WHEN BONDS YIELDS ARE SPIKING TO THE MOON AS COMPETITION TO STOCKS.  Higher and higher costs for financing a business are never good for stock prices or Corporate Earnings, just believe me on this one!


Oops, stocks don't look so hot now!!!

As David Stockman, my hero, points out:  The elephant in the room, and with a Pure Republican Congress this is more than a play on words, IS THE DEBT CEILING INCREASE THAT MUST BE PASSED BY CONGRESS BEFORE MARCH, 2017, SHOWING THE WORLD THAT THE UNTIED STATES ARE DROWNING NOW IN OVER $20 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT.  There will be a lot of tranquilizers passed around in the New Congress in 2017, because not all Republicans are Fiscal Moderates or Lopsided Spenders like Trump.  PROGRAM CUTS, AS DEAR AS MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY INCLUDED, ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE DISCUSSED AND DEBATED UNTIL THE COWS COME HOME.  Heck, some spending cuts might even be passed in a moment of Legislative Enlightenment (LE)!!!  The Sage says to trash the Dept. of Education since our kids aren't even learning how to tie their shoes in school these days, and to cut the E.P.A. by a modest 80% without one endangered species getting extinguished in the next nanosecond.  THE REAL ENDANGERED SPECIES IN THIS COUNTRY IS THE SMALL BUSINESSMAN AND BUSINESSWOMAN.  And those of us who have been financially responsible with our money and spending for the last 50 years ....... like the Very Modest Sage (VMS)!!!

So even though there is still rioting in the streets by a bunch of SORE LOSERS who probably don't have jobs to go to in the morning ( thank you Outgoing Prez Obama! ) and would rather picket, protest, and destroy anyway as a personal preference, NOT A HECK OF A LOT HAS CHANGED FOR THE FUNDAMENTALS OF OWNING AS MUCH GOLD AND SILVER AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY HIDE AWAY.  The world is still the very dangerous place it was on November 7th, dangerous to your financial survival and even physical survival.

Let's look at what the Gold and Silver charts show after last week's smack down:


Both metals are still in new Bull Markets, no reversal in major trend as I type, and who says both Gold and Silver do not violate their 200-Day Moving Averages within bull markets from time to time without killing the Bull!?  They can in fact oscillate over and under this magic technical line all the time within bull markets.  It is noteworthy also that these are not normal times in the bullion trading pits.  J.P. Morgan-Chase take a bow ...... for one!  Do not get too wrapped around the axle of technical chart reading.  Gold has major support in the $1220 zone, and Silver has major support in the $17.30 zone.  Not trying to put lipstick on a pig here, I just like being long markets where Russia and China are buying with both hands in their quest to unseat the Almighty Dollar.  And that day is nigh, but a subject for another day. 


Sage of Wexford, buying while others hide under a mattress.

P.S.  I did vote for The Donald, I confess.  The thought of Billy Bob Clinton being set loose in the White House again amongst any female workers frankly turned my stomach.  And, the Clintons steal furniture, paintings and things each time they leave a Government position.  We couldn't afford them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



News from the Front:  December 13, 2016

The last dewdrops of wisdom from the Sage for 2016.  Very interesting year, but we will not reminisce here, but highlight the goings on in the various markets & economies that will have an impact on Precious Metals prices going forward.  Everyone should be buying both Gold at $1,162 & Silver at $17.15.  No guts, no glory.  No matter what Fibonacci retracement percentage or dollar amounts we have corrected from the 2016 highs, we are still firmly within new bull markets for both metals.

Oh, Gold is still up 9.4% since 12/31/15, and Silver up a whopping 24.1% even at today's corrected prices ........ the Poor Man's Gold (Ag) doing twice as well as the casino chips called stocks ...... with a fraction of the risk via the fundamentals and value.


I think Gold is being sold short in the futures market by Russia & China so
that they can accumulate more physical into their vaults while Uncle Sam is
asleep at the switch.  Dollar is on a short leash as Reserve Currency.


Silver has not corrected anywhere near the degree as Gold, which suggests
that inflation is rearing its ugly head once again around the world as the
Gold to Silver ratio declines.  Very, very interesting!

The rapidity with which American investors jettisoned the Precious Metals to load up on more overvalued stocks is quite amazing, but they did have the wisdom to reject Hillary's bid for the White House, so I give them credit there.  The Donald will not be able to spend as promised using an Overdrawn U.S. Checkbook of over $20 Trillion in the red, so the euphoria since Election Night will be short-lived in stockmarketville.  The Gold ETF's & Silver ETF's, not really a wise way to participate in two asset markets that have beaten the pants off of stocks and real estate since year 2000, have suffered large redemptions in shares which forces the custodians to sell Gold and Silver into the marketplace, further depressing prices.  That American investors would be so frail in their convictions of fundamental prospects for stocks versus precious metals is quite telling in a society that put a Community Organizer into office for a span of eight years.

Actually, I personally hope this exit from PM ETF's will be somewhat permanent going forward, because when an outside auditor is finally brought in via Government edict or investor lawsuit, it is highly probable that the results will find a gross shortage of metals within the vaults of the custodian.  It is only a matter of time before this will occur.  When such parties as Morgan are involved with ETF bullion accounting & storage, it is truly the fox guarding the hen-house.

The failed German bank, Deutsche Bank, probably receiving German Government/ Central Bank assistance as I type, has admitted to conducting illegal trading practices and collusions in the Silver market and has gone State's Witness against about 8 other offenders in the largest European and American bank categories.  We are hardly surprised based on the regularly perverse price action of Silver since 1998, but the cow is finally out of the barn and headed for the Chicago slaughterhouse.  This trial has put the likes of Goldman and Morgan and Bank of America on notice that their highly manipulative trading activities will be increasingly scrutinized and prosecuted going forward.  Especially with such a Free Market Advocate as Sir Donald Trump in the White House lobbing munitions at perpetrators on a daily basis.

I just knighted the Donald to put him on equal footing with Sir Alan Greenspan, a Central Banker who did more harm to the U.S. financial and economic system than any single academic hack in American history.  I expect Mr. Trump will be remembered in quite an opposite vein, a more colorful one at a minimum.  Bernanke and Yellen will take Second & Third Place on that dubious Wall of Shame in the years to come.  Central Bankers do not know more than millions of market participants on how to price money to maximize economic growth or employment, and minimize inflation.  THAT HAS BEEN UNEQUIVOCALLY PROVEN NOW SINCE THE FALL OF 1998.

The Euro Single Region Currency is failing along with the European banking system, Governments, and European economies.  The British post-Brexit have kicked themselves in their derrieres for not buying more Gold since that historic vote to become a free country again, the only true currency appreciating mightily against Sterling and the Euro ever since.  Italy and its banking system are on the verge of collapse (IF NOT ALREADY IN COLLAPSE!!!), and the Domino Effect in Europe is well underway to bringing the Continent down to its collectivism knees on a hard count.  Nationalism is alive and well around the world.  Global Homogeneity was a failed concept from the outset. Never forget that the largest American banks hold very large quantities of the paper of insolvent European governments and sinking European banks.  TIMBER.

Speaking of the Bond Market, as I have warned for years now as global yields for insolvent borrowers have reached truly RIDICULOUS levels, devoid of any pricing element of Default/Credit Risk OR Inflation Risk, has ended its Bull Market that existed for an unprecedented 34 years, and now is being mauled by a newly-born BEAR MARKET.  Mortgage rates Stateside have surged some 30% over the last several months, putting a further damper on the Housing Market that suffered already from overpriced abodes to buyers who could barely meet the monthly home payments even with grossly subsidized interest rates.  The bloom is well off the housing market rose, another nail amongst a box of nails in the coffin of the American economy.  Mr. Trump will not be able to affect change fast enough or spend money fast enough to turn this well-established trend around.  Sorry ....... Stock Dreamers.


The 10-year Yield has surged from 1.34% to almost 2.50% in just over 5 months.  When
it exceeds 2.50% and stays there, KATY BAR THE DOOR FOR BOND INVESTORS.
Stocks are destined to follow bonds down in price.  Emotional rallies are very fickle.

There is also price depression ( yield elevation ) of U.S. Treasuries globally as sovereign states continue massive liquidations of this now questionable debt in order to plug insolvency dikes at the State, Corporate, and Banking System levels.  With a new Spender in Chief soon to enter the White House, fiscal soundness of the United States looks to soon be more compromised than ever, and Central Banks might as well jettison this budding junk in order to plug solvency crises on the Homefront.  China seems to be the lead character in this unfolding theater, but massive sales of U.S. Debt will become a Rate Increase Factor ( RIF ) in the weeks and months ahead ACROSS THE GLOBE.  The bloom is off the safe haven status of U.S. Debt Obligations, and they are a ready source of hard currency for Sinking Ships of State ( S.S.S. ).  History, as usual, is unfolding before our eyes.  Ho, Ho, Ho, Ho, Ho.

Sage of Wexford, Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas to All,
                                    count your Blessings.




News from the Front - ARCHIVE II


The information and opinions contained within WCM's "News From The Front" have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Wexford Capital Management, David W. Young or the Company's agents or assigns accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this free newsletter or its contents. All periodic "ezine" articles posted on are strictly for informational purposes only. No statement or expression of any opinions contained within this electronic newsletter constitutes an offer to buy or sell any financial securities or surrogates mentioned herein. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and to perform extensive due diligence and/or obtain professional financial advice before making any investment decision, especially in the exceptionally volatile asset markets of today.  WCM's Principal, David W. Young withdrew the Company's Registered Investment Advisor status with the S.E.C. and the Virginia Division of  Securities in May of 2005 and no longer offers financial-asset managed accounts receiving continuous supervision of assets.  WCM's principal, David W. Young, was a Registered Investment Advisor in good standing from October, 1985 to May, 2005.  Furthermore, the company does not engage in any fee-based or compensatory provision of financial or investment advice.  The brokering of tangible assets sales via U.S. Rare Coins, Precious Metals Bullion, and Fancy Colored Diamonds is the sole business of Wexford Capital Management and the company cannot be construed under any measure as being in the "financial newsletter business".


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