| firstname.lastname@example.org |
Prior dewdrops of wisdom from the illustrious Sage of Wexford
are retained for posterity below:
News from the Front: November 15, 2017
Probably my last update of 2017, unless something major happens
before year-end, like Fiscal Responsibility coming back into vogue
in Washington, but the return of Halley's Comet tomorrow would be
more likely. The Debt Monster will be kicked down the road
again, is my best guess, so that when he comes back into town in the
quarters ahead with interest rates rising worldwide due to massive
defaults, he will be more ferocious than ever at robbing the younger
generations today of their American Dreams and their debt-inflated
Standards of Living. These Bozo's that we put into office are
like a nest of termites progressively eroding all structures of the
United States: societal, economic, financial, healthcare, and
everything in between. We can be thankful this November 23rd
that the coming FINANCIAL PANIC has not occurred in Full Mounty Mode
yet, so that the majority of Americans and planet dwellers can
continue to munch on a bounty of hot media air and keep their
collective heads in the sand as to the coming calamity. Most
are woefully unprepared for what is coming, whether it be
financially or emotionally. But the signs of financial strain,
look no further than the performance of Junk Bonds Stateside as one
prime example, are everywhere for the informed and awake observer to
This means that this corporate subset of unduly leveraged and very
questionable/ credit-compromised borrowers are watching their
less-than-subprime debt get whacked on price and require higher
yields from brain-dead investors in order to unload this toilet
paper. I almost have to chuckle how investors have piled into
Junk Bonds for years now, thinking there is a free lunch to higher
than Fed-induced Zero Yields at the banks and money markets.
They are finding out that the term, "JUNK", means what it says, and
the risk of owning this stuff is actually much, much greater than
the Fed-suppressed compression of yield spreads from investment grades
to junk grades, never more narrow, would imply!!
PLEASE TAKE A BOW ONCE AGAIN FEDERAL
RESERVE MEMBERS FOR HERDING THE SHEEP INTO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE
CORRAL. These knuckleheads will be retired on bloated pensions
as the crapola hits the fan.
Note how the other class of brain-dead investors,
per the S&P 500 index graph in blue, continue to party on like the
music will never stop .... NO MATTER WHAT NEWS OR EVENTS COME TO BE. Weeeeeee, make sure you put your arms up in the air as the
rollercoaster hits the DOWN SLOPE, kiddies. I am being
purposely disrespectful and snide of today's global financial market
investors because even a rat can be trained by repetition to find
the end of the maze or the cheese. THESE GLEEFUL PARTIERS HAVE
NO RECOLLECTION OF PAST EVENTS, LIKE OCTOBER OF 2008. Got
Gold? Got Silver? Got Ammo? Got Cash buried in the
woods at a 3,000 ft. altitude?
Yields are going up around the world, even if they still remain
historically depressed and artificially maintained by a gaggle of
Central Bankers that I am putting on the first vessel to Mars.
They probably won't make it due to their utter lack of fortitude to
do the right things for all but the One Percenters and Sovereign
Debt Issuers, but no great loss. I know we already have way
too much space junk out there now, but this may be the best way to
save the planet from extinction. Oh, and let's put Al Gore on
that vessel also since the only man-made global warming that is
occurring is when he opens that overweight and overpaid mouth of
his. I am surprised he does not need a cargo-type plane to fly
everywhere, like a C10, preferably the Russian version with all of
the propellers that are prone to failure.
But Quantitative Tightening is something we will have on our
collective Thanksgiving Tables, served up with a helping of Loan
Standard Tightening, Subprime Auto Loan Defaulting, Student Loan
Defaulting & State/ Country Bankrupting that will assure the
roll-over of the Global Economy is another trend change well in
For example, in the Third Quarter of 2017, subprime auto loans issued
by finance companies (vs. banks & credit unions) had a 9.7%
delinquency rate of payments past-due by 90 days or more. The
previous record of 10.9% in Third Qtr. of 2009 will likely be
surpassed in the months and quarters ahead and probably be north of
15% before next winter. Notably, of the $282 billion in
subprime auto loans outstanding today, these loosey-goosey, Wild
West finance companies have originated approx. $209 billion or a
whooping 74% of the total. TALK ABOUT
AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN!!! And we are not
talking about a car accident here, but Tens of Billions of Dollars
going down the drain and not down the pike. And this is during
an economic period that the Fed and the politically-leaning
charlatans reporting data out of Washington label as a solid
performer as to GDP growth and employment!!!!!! These already
compromised borrowers with stinko credit ratings are also the most
likely to run into hard economic times with early-cycle job losses
and other defaults (H-O-M-E) as the Obama Depression, Phase II
really starts strangling everything with a pulse. Bush was
blamed for everything during the Great Divider's early rule (like
the sun coming up in the East), so let's spread the Blame Game as it
should be spread. Obummer ran us into a ditch just like he
accused Bush of doing. Na Na Na Na Na.
And even though the Sage can see years into the future (with one eye
closed!), I have no
idea what this new Fed Chair anointed guy Powell will do with
monetary policy, but my bet is that he will screw things up even
more like Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen have done before him .....
a vengeance. When the crap really hits the fan in the
not-so-distant-future, he will print money like all of his
incompetent predecessors ...... pushing us toward a Weimar Germany
moment with a dollar not worth a plug nickel. Get that
wheelbarrow ready to buy a loaf of bread! That does not
mean that he will not continue to raise interest rates as fast as
possible IN THE INTERIM in order to have a cliff on rates from which
to not only jump off of, but begin to reduce rates from. Can't
reduce rates with any effect on the American or global system from
1.25%, can you??? WE ARE DOOMED BY THE INCOMPETENTS WE SELECT
TO RUN THE ASYLUM.
As to gold and silver, let me just say that Silver is telling the
entire story as to where the Precious Metals are likely to go next.
While many "trading experts" out there point to the C.O.T. positions
of Speculators as way too high on the Long Side to allow any
near-term rallies in either metal in the short-term, TELL ME HOW
MANY TIMES SILVER HAS BEEN KNOCKED BELOW $17 PER OUNCE OVER THE LAST
6 WEEKS AND HOW MANY TIMES IT HAS POPPED RIGHT BACK UP AND OVER THAT
THRESHOLD. This is not a sign of current or impending
weakness, it is a sign of strength! Silver and
Gold are being accumulated around the world, even if American
investors are too fickle (or thick) to realize a winding spring when they see
one. Physical demand is strong around the world for both
precious metals, even if there are signs of weakness in demand
Stateside in a country where the inhabitants are used to instant
gratifications a la FANG stock & Bitcoin rockets, and were absent the day
that the lesson on U.S. bank note failures was taught in school.
U.S. coin of the realm has failed many times during our brief
history on this planet, AND IT IS DESTINED TO FAIL AGAIN IN THE
MONTHS AHEAD. It will fail as Debt Securities across the board
begin to default in one fashion or the other. The highest
percentage of debt outstanding in the world is denominated in
..... wait for it ..... D-O-L-L-A-R-S!!!!
Buy when there is blood in the streets.
GOBBLE, GOBBLE ..... GOD knows there are more than enough Turkeys
running & ruining our country. Happy Thanksgiving, and GOOD
soon ..... regrettably, to be proven correct.
News from the Front: January 15, 2018
Happy New Year, especially to astute bullion holders and buyers, AND
NOT SO MUCH FOR FINANCIAL ASSET HOLDERS AND BUYERS. Yes, the
giddy Stock Market keeps going up almost daily, but in an economy
that struggles with 3% GDP growth in nominal terms, a P.E. of 18x to
24x trailing S&P 500 earnings marks one of the most expensive and
over-extended American stock markets in history. But the real
story at this very moment is not in the Bubblelicious Equity Scene
(BES), but in the debt markets globally. Bond prices are declining
around the world as debt investors become more skittish of issuers'
creditworthiness and the real threat of inflation as prices rise in
economies to match the rise in real estate, wages, and financial
market prices. Hot money creates more hot money.
Speculation with zero cost money creates more speculation and
distorts asset prices across the spectrum of typical portfolio
assets. Gold and Silver are not typical portfolio assets due
to their gross undervaluation in a paper-crazy world, or due to
their abilities to be bartered for virtually anything at any place
on the planet.
As David Stockman so aptly points out: "THE BOND VIGILANTES
ARE BACK!". Meaning that the normal market mechanism of
valuing bonds in the secondary and primary markets is
re-establishing itself after a very long absence due to Global
Central Banks' grievous manipulation of the Cost of Money; duration,
issuer creditworthiness, inflation expectations, and currency
exposure are all coming back into the Valuation Mix at the worst
possible time for America, The Donald, the stock market, and the
real estate market. Central Banksters have so distorted the
price of money that even widows & orphans have thrown money at
Emerging Market or American Junk Debt since the Federal Reserve's
acquiesced criminal activities of the banking system have stolen
Trillions of Dollars from Savers since 2009.
DON'T KEEP ANY MORE MONEY IN A BANK THAN
YOU NEED FOR MONTHLY EXPENSES, SAY 3 MONTH'S WORTH. You are
not being paid either the true Inflation Rate north of 8% OR are you
being compensated for the real risk that your bank will become even
more insolvent when the crap hits the fan in the months ahead.
Silas Marner had the right idea about where to stow his worldly
fortune. In the floorboards.
I am personally (and professionally!) amazed at the lack of physical
bullion buyers in today's American gold & silver market at such
favorable prices with the majority of transactions for 2017, at
least for WCM, on the Sell Side. Wow! Talk about selling
out toward the low in prices. Gold could easily be $5,000 to
$10,000 per ounce in the immediate years ahead, and Silver will
easily surpass $160 per ounce in the same time frame. But for
a consumer who piles on more debt to take advantage of
UNREALIZED STOCK MARKET OR REAL ESTATE GAINS or just to Feel
Good with more worldly goods for the Holiday Shopping Binge, it is
no wonder that priorities are arse-backwards, and short-term
consumption is more important than long-term FINANCIAL SURVIVAL.
Many of today's stock market participants, and even bond market
participants, are going to see their net-worth's plunge in the years
ahead as they hang onto these now speculative assets well into 50%
declines ..... thinking the Fed will come to their rescue once again
as in 1987, 1998, 2001, and 2008.
AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN OR CAN'T HAPPEN WITHOUT HYPER-INFLATION.
To the contrary, in 2018, the entire Gang of Global Central
Banksters will be on a tightening campaign to drain monetary
liquidity from the markets and economies just when stock and bond
prices are at historically ridiculous levels and economies are
running on their last embers of growth. Eventually, the
consumers of the world have to pay back all of the principal they
have borrowed, even if the rates are at Depression Era levels!
The leading Quantitative Tightener, the U.S. Federal Reserve, as
pathetic a monetary body as human history has even seen, never
getting it right, will drain the Money Swamp by some $420 Billion in
2018 and by some $600 Billion in 2019. The low rate party and
subsequent speculations attendant to it are fricking over Sportsfans!!!
This will undoubtedly have an adverse effect upon bond prices with
higher and higher yields coming to a stock market competition near
The Bank of Japan and the EU Circus Bank both will be turning off
the spigots if not merely reducing the largess of printing they did
in 2017 and prior. What a Club of Clowns! They finally
see the Light of Misguided Monetary Policies (LMMP's) simultaneously
at the very worst possible moment, and fall all over
themselves to try to look like Paul Volcker's in vain. MONKEY
SEE, MONKEY DO. No statues will be erected in the town squares
for these Malicious Monetary Clowns as they will be going up for
receiver Diggs of the Minnesota Vikings. He knew how to catch
the ball when the chips were down. These Bankster Clowns have
not only fumbled the ball at the 5-yard line, but burnt down the
stadium with the fans still in it. Pitchforks and hoes are
headed toward every central bank headquarters in the years ahead.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving gaggle of overpaid and pompous
Gold and Silver are headed much higher in the months ahead.
Get over it. Accept it. Act upon it. Put your
money where your prospects for financial salvation are the highest.
If history is any guide, and it repeatedly is, we have entered the
most dangerous Financial and Economic Period in human history.
For those of you who have carefully studied the entrails of the
chicken as I have for some 45 years now, I can say this without
hesitation and with great confidence in its accuracy. Smarter
money than me is getting out of financials, real estate, and other
illiquid assets, and plowing proceeds into bullion and colored
diamonds. Maybe not so much here in the Untied States, but in
most developed countries across the globe. Americans often are
the last to get the memo. Americans have short memories and
long propensities to live for the moment. Better to be an Ant
per Aesop's Fables than the Grasshopper who ended up
chocolate-coated on the grocery shelf. The consumer is about
to get consumed.
Silver has just broken out to $17.40 per oz. as the U.S. Dollar
tests the 90 level on the index, a currency backed by nothing more
than hot air out of Washington, the capital of the biggest Debtor
Nation the world has ever seen.
the 2015 New Bullion Bull is prancing out of the stables.
News from the Front: March 26, 2018
I was going to wait until April Fool's Day to compose this
every-other-month epistle, but I then figured there were too many
loyal readers who rushed to their computers every morning only to be
disappointed that there were no new Dewdrops of Wisdom from the Sage.
"A Fool and his money are soon parted" comes to mind, in spades, in
the financial and real estate markets today, and the stock market is
soon to join the Bond Market Bear in progressively lower prices in
the weeks and months immediately ahead. No more waiting for a
rationalization of equity prices, IT IS HERE WITH A VENGEANCE.
Mind you, the robo-machines will push equities spectacularly higher
on a single day like today celebrating a China sitting down to the
Trade Negotiation Table (TNT), good luck with that one,
BUT THE TREND IS NOW DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.
The peak, or should I say lower & lower peaks, that has been put in so far this year is a little more than
a so-called correction as defined by the Perma-Bulls on BubbleVision,
based on the daily magnitude and volatility of formation.
No asset class rises for almost a decade uninterrupted in price
appreciation without a comeuppance arriving at some point. That
comeuppance will be a true and deadly BEAR MARKET to the vast majority of
stock investors who don't have the common sense to get out of the
way of a speeding train. Greed is still running rampant on
Broad & Wall Streets. No disrespect intended for these Naive Ones, just
appropriate contempt for any that may think a retirement fund
bail-out will be their Constitutional Right in the years ahead.
Switching gears somewhat, but still on the path of DISHING
OVERVALUED ASSETS (DOA),
I have to giggle somewhat at people who still mistakenly think that
residential real estate is the Easy Road to Retirement Nirvana (ERRN).
You get to live in it, put in a pool, scoop up your neighbors' pet's
excrement regularly, pay property taxes on it, and pay a
never-ending stream of repairs & maintenance on it, not to mention
those very expensive Home Improvements that you likely won't see a
penny worth's back upon resale. Thank goodness that the
Mortgage Deduction for Real Estate Property Tax is now capped at
$10,000 per year. I am tired of subsidizing high-tax States
like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island
California that inherently are uber-liberal and free spending.
Try being a Public Employee betting on full retirement benefits in
This will eventually have a depressing effect on the real estate
those States, stay tuned. The effects of Cost of Carry
have not been revoked from Asset Pricing. Since I personally got rid of all
mortgage debt in 2002, with a homestead downsize of Biblical
proportions, I am not a strong advocate of the Mortgage
Interest Deduction in the first place. Why should homeowners
be so subsidized to include deducting Property Taxes
PROBABLY A SMARTER GROUP OF SHELTER-SEEKERS AT THIS JUNCTION, GET TO
DEDUCT NONE OF THEIR RENTAL PAYMENTS. Time to let
the Real Estate Industry sink or swim with the rest of us mortals.
Homeownership is not a Constitutional Right, nor is it appropriate
for many individuals who are so heavily buried already in every
other form of debt: Student Loan, Auto Loan, Installment Loan,
and Credit Card Debt that the Home Mortgage is the last ounce of
debt burden just enough to break the camel's back. Real estate
is going to be a dog of an investment over the next 30 years, just
like my residence here in lovely Virginia which is still over $100,000
below the 2005 peak and MAYBE ONLY $20K above COST BASIS for a 2018
selling price AFTER A 6% COMMISSION!! A less than 10%
before-tax return after 15.5 years!!! SORELY BELOW THE RATE OF
INFLATION PER ANNUM ..... SOME INVESTMENT!!! And I am not
deducting for after-tax carrying costs such as repairs &
Just a roof of
varying niceness over your head. Nothing more, nothing less.
Get used to this concept.
Told an incredulous neighbor here in 2006 that I never expected to
make any money on this cottage-like home on a whopping 1/3 acre lot, and
he is about to find that out on his decade-plus holding now up for
sale in a barely middle class neighborhood (from my 1950's/
1960's evolutionary, growing-up comparisons!). No
insult intended to anyone, just a fact based on likely income levels, final
education, occupations, and lack of manners and consideration of others; we used
to call the latter shortcoming a Lack of Upbringing in the Old Days, but that is
Totally Politically Incorrect (TPI) today! And renting space
in your Single-Family home to a non-family member(s) is hardly
Middle Class economic behavior by any metric or regularly practiced
by prior generations.
One crucial rule of real estate investing: Never own the
most over-improved house in the neighborhood. I was in
that camp in the early 1990's in Leesburg, VA, but was eclipsed in
the later years of that decade by my over-improving neighbors.
Oh, and based upon the number of newer model year gas-guzzlers
sitting on the street and in the driveways, since the two-car garage
has been either filled with piles of junk or converted into a Romper
Room of some genesis, these same people are more than likely up to
their proverbial eyeballs in all varieties of debt, especially
mortgage. Their residential property has effectively become
the Greenspan ATM.
But I digress something BIG TIME here. Just some New Year
Gold and Silver are looking
and acting great. I know I have said this many a time since
2011, but the Entrails of the Chicken are lining up for one heck of a
bull market pulse as my wrinkled old digits pound the keyboard.
(Ever notice as you are reaching your so-called "Golden Years" that
your skin looks more and more like a waterlogged alligator??!!!)
Gold has now completed a classic Cup and Handle formation which from
my 47 years of investing has proven to be the most reliable and
predictive technical price pattern for a budding break-out to higher
prices. Silver is in a declining wedge pattern that the
majority of the time is resolved by a very strong break-out to the
upside. Plus, the Speculators on the COMEX have now gone net
short in the futures pits on Silver, which normally is a very
bullish contrarian sign that this hot money is soon to be burned in
the opposite direction. Short covering rally comes to mind.
Let's look at some of the fundamentals that are providing a very
strong tailwind to the Precious Metals for Second Quarter, 2018:
1. Budding Trade Wars around the world where the Donald takes
the lead and the non-U.S. players counter with one domestic-industry-saving tariff after the other. If you think China will play
nice under any negotiated deals as of today, I have a Bridge to
Nowhere to sell you. If they continue to steal our
intellectual property left & right, you think they will adhere to
any trade deals going forward???!! Higher domestic U.S. imported prices are
coming on top of a Declining Dollar due to loss of confidence in
Washington getting its fiscal & political crap together.
Reminds me of the trade wars culminating in the Great Depression of
the late 1920's!
U.S. DOLLAR HEADED TO MUCH LOWER LEVELS.
2. Flight of capital from U.S. stocks and bonds and real
estate as one market after the other has peaked out or is in the
process of doing so (domestic real estate the last to get the memo!). Economy is crapping out as I type, but
don't tell that to the statisticians out of Washington. Too
much debt burden everywhere to support incremental economic growth
at this point, not to mention mortgage rates and interest rates
headed higher with Default Risk and Inflation Risk now firmly back
into the pricing formula for Debt. The Bond Vigilantes are
back in town. The party is over in the
financial markets. Reality will be very costly for those who
overstay these markets.
3. The Fed is on a Quantitative Tightening binge that will
drain $100's of Billions from the Treasury and Mortgage markets over
the course of the year. The Ten-Year Treasury is at 2.84% and
counting, with 2.5% having been the critical level for labeling the bond market
as being firmly in Bear Mode. Mortgage rates are now up over 50 basis
points since the last quarter of 2017 with a lot of marginally
qualified buyers now knocked out of the box. The Fed has never
been known for astute timing or effectiveness of policies (Volcker &
Martin the exceptions), so they are most likely
trying to build a buffer into interest rates so they will have some
room to lower rates at the next financial crisis that they finally
see is just around the corner. Taxpayer bail-outs as in 2008
will cause riots in the streets since Wall Street, not Main Street,
has benefited from the grossly misguided Fed Policies of the last 30
4. The United States has descended into Political Dysfunction
& Fiscal Collapse. The spending bills being pushed out
of our Pork Barrel Congress and signed by the Donald are adding
Trillions & Trillions of Dollars to the National Debt over the next
decade alone. Already we have passed the $21 Trillion
National Debt marker without either party making note of even the
existence of the Country Crushing Debt
Monster coming down the road. The U.S. Dollar is now firmly in
a bear market that is going to see the Dollar Index sink to 70 or 60
from around 90 today over the next two years. Very bad for
U.S. inflation, sales of U.S. Government Debt without much higher
interest rates, and very positive for alternatives to fiat
currencies, GOLD and SILVER.
THE PRECIOUS METALS LOVE UNCERTAINTY,
LOSS OF CONFIDENCE, INFLATION, AND CHAOS.
Enough for now. Need to take some aspirin to get rid of the
headache this dire reality is causing me. Maybe they should be
Gold and Silver coated capsules, n'est pas? U.S. buyers of
Gold and Silver are on strike right now across the bullion industry.
They will wish they had purchased at today's prices when they had
the chance. If you want to live like a Rothschild, "BUY WHEN
THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS".
eventually even a monkey at a typewriter types
PRIOR DEWDROPS OF WISDOM
VIA "News From The Front"
News from the Front -
The information and
opinions contained within WCM's "News
From The Front" have been compiled or
arrived at from sources believed to be
reliable but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to their
accuracy or completeness. Neither Wexford
Capital Management, David W. Young or the
Company's agents or assigns accepts any
liability whatsoever for any loss arising
from the use of this free newsletter or its
contents. All periodic "ezine" articles
posted on www.goldsilverbullion.com are
strictly for informational purposes only. No
statement or expression of any opinions
contained within this electronic newsletter
constitutes an offer to buy or sell any
financial securities or surrogates mentioned
herein. Readers are encouraged to conduct
their own research and to perform extensive
due diligence and/or obtain professional
financial advice before making any
investment decision, especially in the
exceptionally volatile asset markets of
today. WCM's Principal, David W. Young
withdrew the Company's Registered Investment
Advisor status with the S.E.C. and the
Virginia Division of Securities in May
of 2005 and no longer offers financial-asset
managed accounts receiving continuous
supervision of assets. WCM's
principal, David W. Young, was a Registered
Investment Advisor in good standing from
October, 1985 to May, 2005.
Furthermore, the company does not engage in
any fee-based or compensatory provision of
financial or investment advice. The
brokering of tangible assets sales via U.S.
Rare Coins, Precious Metals Bullion, and
Fancy Colored Diamonds is the sole business
of Wexford Capital Management and the
company cannot be construed under any
measure as being in the "financial
1999 - 2017, WCM
All Rights Reserved